Drewry Shipping Consultants' new Freight Shipper Insight provides up-to-date market information on demand trends, freight rate developments and macro-economic indicators specific to the ocean, air, rail and road freight sectors.
Key features of the report are two new products: Spot market airfreight rate benchmarks for cargo ex Shanghai to destinations in the US and Europe, and a freight operators' Z-score financial stress index.
The Z-score index aims to provide a quick reference to shippers who are increasingly concerned by the financial fitness of their service providers. The Z-score method was developed by US academic Edward Altman in the 1960's to predict the likelihood of a company's failure in the next two years, based solely on data from financial reports.
Most of the ocean freight related companies tracked in the index have low Z-score ratings, as do most airlines, whereas major freight forwarding companies have very safe ratings.
AP Moller-Maersk and Orient Overseas International, parent companies of Maersk Line and OOCL respectively, are the only ocean freight related companies with Z-scores above the "distress zone".
Zim had the lowest of all the selected freight companies rated.
The findings of the Z-score index highlights the fact that, while the broader global economy might be on the mend, certain sectors of the freight transport industry will take far longer to recover.
The airfreight rate benchmarks point to how far prices out of Asia have taken off in the last few months.
The Drewry Air Freight Price Index has risen by 29% from October to December, as air carriers have been able to push up rates by holding back capacity amid a late-year demand surge.
It is a similar situation in the ocean sector, with rates on the increase in the key Asia - Europe/Med and transpacific trade lanes.
"Air and ocean shippers alike are faced with the same headaches in terms of pricing and space allocation due almost entirely to the severe capacity retrenchments and decommissioning of fleets," said Simon Heaney, editor of the new report.
Heaney added that Drewry is concerned that the current environment will only serve to further sour relations between carriers and their customers, with some shippers feeling that they are being blackmailed by carriers who are showing little or no respect for contracts.
"It looks like the animosity between the two sides is intensifying, especially after the announcement by the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement carriers to impose an Emergency Revenue Charge mid-contract," said Heaney.
"Just look at the way some lines are dressing up rate hikes as ‘Peak Season Surcharges' even though it is historically the slackest period!" added Heaney
Drewry believes that some of the freight rate increases have been a natural correction as prices had fallen way below break-even, the container shipping and airline industries will book a combined loss in the region of $20-$30 billion for 2009, but that carriers could be doing a better job of explaining their actions.
