3PL/Logistics

Article by John Wagner Jr from Wagner Logistics (Published on Supply Chain Blog)

I’m starting 2013 with what I would describe as tempered optimism. Here are my Top 10 reasons why.

1.  Despite what some might think, the United States continues to be the world’s biggest economy at $15.7 trillion. (China is second at $8.3 trillion.)

2.  Unemployment fell to 7.7 percent in November as 146,000 jobs were added. It appears we are heading in the right direction. Job growth in the technology sector outpaced the U.S. economy 3 to 1.

3.  U.S. productivity is improving, a precursor to additional hiring as employers maximize existing employees. Productivity growth was up 2.9 percent on an annualized rate from July to September, for the fastest pace in two years.

4.  Existing home sales increased 5.9 percent in November to a three-year high, the most homes sold since November of 2009. Pricing continues to improve for sellers.

5.  The growth of oil and gas exploration in the U.S. and resulting discoveries means the country is moving closer to energy independence and will become a major exporter of natural gas by 2020. Look for more affordable energy in the future.

6.  Twenty percent of global manufacturing remains in the United States and as makers of products “re-shore” their plants, this number will increase. The Institute for Supply Management reports that U.S. manufacturing activity grew to a reading of 50.7 in December from 49.5 in November. Apple is planning to build a new Mac plant in the USA this year. There is plenty of good news here to be optimistic about.

7.  As of the end of October retail sales were up 3.7 percent year over year. Final retail numbers have not arrived yet but they are expected to be a little off due togovernmental brinkmanship scaring consumers. With the tax rates for Middle America now locked down and the job outlook improving, I expect consumers to continue spending, boosting retail vendors, importers, and transportation carriers.

8.  Trucking finished the year on solid ground, with the American Trucking Associations reporting that the For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index bounced up 3.7 percent in November. Year-over-year gains will not be as impressive this year, but should at least be positive for everyone.

9.  Port container volume outpaced 2011 in 2012.

10.  As of Dec. 1, intermodal carload volume increased 3.2 percent for the year. Rail intermodal volume will be good as truckload carriers struggle with finding and keeping drivers.

While the curmudgeon in me could provide plenty of negatives, I choose to look on the bright side, and hope you will too.

John Wagner will be joining 75 other C-level executives at this year's 3PL Summit in Chicago, June 18th - 20th. Click the links below to find out more on how to get involved in the event.